Ethiopia/Somalia: Tension between the two countries reaches critical point

As reported by Reuters on 4 April 2024, Somalia expelled Ethiopia's ambassador amidst a deteriorating relationship between the two countries. This deterioration in relations has been evident since Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a memorandum of understanding and Ethiopia’s plan to build a naval base in Somaliland became public. The immediate catalyst for the expulsion of the Ethiopian ambassador was Ethiopia's reception of delegates from Puntland. Puntland's official withdrawal from the Federal Republic of Somalia has exacerbated tensions and contributed to the strained diplomatic situation between Ethiopia and Somalia (Reuters, 31 March 2024).

World Watch Research analyst Yonas Dembele comments: “The relationship between Ethiopia and Somalia has been deteriorating fast, with recent concerns involving airspace issues and Ethiopian Airlines flights. The situation has been further complicated by the involvement of other countries such as Egypt and Turkey, who appear to be leveraging these tensions to strengthen their presence in the region. It is important to note Ethiopia's long-standing role in helping Somalia combat the militant group al-Shabaab; escalating tensions and any Ethiopian military withdrawal could further destabilize the region, potentially empowering al-Shabaab and increasing risks, particularly to Christian communities. The delicate balance in the region is at a critical point, where actions by Ethiopia, Somalia and international players will significantly impact regional stability and security.”