Azerbaijan: Turkey is here to stay

As reported by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on 30 January 2021, a joint Turkish and Russian observation center has begun to monitor the cease-fire between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Azerbaijani Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov and deputy defense ministers from Turkey and Russia were there to launch operations at the center. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar announced on 29 January that one Turkish general and 38 personnel would be stationed at the center. From 1-12 February 2021, Turkey and Azerbaijan engaged in large-scale joint military exercises in eastern Anatolia near the border with Armenia (RFE/RL, 2 February 2021). Rolf Zeegers, persecution analyst at World Watch Research, believes that these reports are an indication that Turkey is planning to remain closely involved in the region: "It seems that Russia (who brokered the peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan on 9 November 2020) is accepting the increased Turkish influence. Ties have deepened after Turkey supported Azerbaijan in its victory against Armenian forces in the 44-day war over the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. As a result, many Armenians have decided to leave Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh in Armenian) since anti-Armenian sentiments are strong among both Azeris and Turks. According to Jamestown reporting on 22 January 2021, the authorities in Yerevan and Stepanakert have assessed the total number of Karabakh refugees to Armenia at 93,300." Rolf Zeegers continues: "The 2020 war has had disastrous results for Christians in both Karabakh and Armenia itself. Hardly any Christians are left in Karabakh and a number of churches and monasteries there have been damaged. Armenia now has to cope with a large influx of Christian refugees who have lost their homes and income. It will take years for these families and the region to recover."