The 2022 Russian-Ukrainian war has a major impact in the Middle East. As Asia News reported on 10 March 2022, the World Bank thinks this could even lead to
famine and riots in the region, similar to those that eventually led to the Arab Spring (AsiaNews, 10 March 2022). Lebanon is particularly vulnerable in this regard: In an article published on 29 March 2022, AsiaNews quoted Ukraine's ambassador in Beirut as saying that 74% of the cereals imported by Lebanon
come from Ukraine and 63% of its imported oil. As a result, the international NGO Mercy Corps is concerned that "the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is exacerbating a humanitarian situation that was already disastrous in Lebanon, and risks causing further political destabilization, undermining economic recovery and making many people dependent on humanitarian aid".
World Watch Research analyst Henriette Kats gives more background information: "Lebanon is facing an existential crisis: According to the UN, the
financial collapse has resulted in the Lebanese currency losing more than 90% of its value since 2019 and has driven about 78% of the population into poverty (Al-Jazeera, 1 October 2021). Fuel shortages have plagued the country for some time. Further, observers fear that the intensification of sectarian and regional tensions could lead to a climate of
civil war and control of the country by militias (
Arab Weekly, 1 September 2021). Already in August 2021, sectarian tensions between Shia and Christian villages in southern Lebanon escalated due to fuel shortages and led to government forces being called in to intervene."
Henriette Kats continues: "The current political crisis combined with the dire economic situation is of deep concern for the whole population and especially for the Christian community in Lebanon. Even before the war between Russia and the Ukraine, poverty and hunger in particular posed a great threat to the Christian population leaving an increasing number of Lebanese Christians at risk of food insecurity and (to a lesser extent) homelessness. Ever since the start of the civil war in 1975, the number of Christians in Lebanon has been steadily declining. Their relatively higher level of education and social mobility is likely to lead to a continued "˜brain drain", with younger Christians in particular aiming to leave the country, diminishing the overall influence of Christians in the country and region."
