The Burmese army, the Tatmadaw, enacted a coup against the elected government and imposed a one year state of emergency, as
Reuters and
BBC News reported on 1 February 2021.
Thomas Muller, persecution analyst at World Watch Research, explains: "Although the Tatmadaw had been making claims about vote fraud at the November general election for some time, the coup came somewhat as a surprise and there may be other political motives involved. Army leader and strongman
Min Aung Hlaing was supposed to retire in 2021 and his tense relationship with civilian leader and freedom icon Aung San Suu Kyi has been well documented (BBC News, 1 February 2021). While she is currently under arrest at an unknown location, international calls for
targeted sanctions against the country"s generals may be of little success (Foreign Policy, 2 February 2021). China and Russia would most likely veto any sanctions. Although China got
along very well with the civilian NLD government - thus the coup may be something of a temporary headache for Beijing (The Diplomat, 3 February 2021) - , its
economic and geostrategic interests will almost certainly lead them ultimately to support the new leadership (Radio Free Asia - RFA, 3 February 2021)."
Thomas Muller continues: "According to reports, Aung San Suu Kyi has been
charged with a violation of import-export laws and first signs of civil disobedience campaigns are beginning to show as people bang pots at night and doctors either go on strike or wear red ribbons in a support of the NLD (RFA, 3 February 2021). This has enabled the army to keep her in "˜legal" detention for two weeks. Country observers are also doubtful of the Tatmadaw"s claim that the state of emergency will be lifted after one year; they foresee a
prolonged military rule, similar to what happened in neighboring Thailand in 2014 (Benar News, 4 February 2021)."
Thomas Muller adds: "What all this may mean for the Christian minority remains to be seen, although there could be a surprising answer: Very little. Christians were already under pressure when the NLD was in charge and although there may have been some democratic restraints on the army, these were hardly felt on the ground. In general, the Tatmadaw was able to act freely and with impunity. So, in practice, there may be
very few changes in terms of being affected by fighting, displacement and religious nationalism (Vox, 2 February 2021)."
