As Radio Free Asia reported on 26 April 2022, Myanmar"s
Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM), which was formed in February 2021 to oppose the military regime using non-violent means, would seem to be losing steam. Meanwhile, Malaysia has made contact with the
opposition National Unity Government (NUG) in exile and called upon other countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to follow suit (Benar News, 25 April 2022).
World Watch Research analyst Thomas Muller explains: "Financially ruined and facing attacks against their families, it is little wonder that many members of the CDM have decided to end their civil disobedience. But there are other indicators of possible movement in the crisis: Malaysia"s unprecedented move in showing willingness to support the NUG comes roughly a year after ASEAN reached a
five-point consensus with the military regime which the latter has never implemented (Al-Jazeera, 24 April 2021). Not surprisingly, Myanmar"s military government
condemned Malaysia"s contact with the NUG as "˜terrorist" cooperation (Al-Jazeera, 3 May 2022). Given ASEAN"s practice of consensus (where one country can block any decision) and the principle of non-interference in member countries" internal affairs, it is unlikely that Malaysia"s tentative support for the NUG will become the bloc"s official position."
Thomas Muller adds: "Meanwhile, efforts by the military regime to continue peace talks have been officially
rejected by one of the largest ethnic armed groups, the Kachin Independent Army, which said that talks do not make sense if some parties are missing from the negotiation table (The Irrawaddy, 5 May 2022). Widespread fighting continues unabated, for instance in Karen State, where Christians make up 15% of the population. As government bombardment intensified in the period‚ 29 April - 1 May 2022, thousands of civilians had to
flee for their lives, adding to the ongoing IDP crisis in Myanmar (UCA News, 5 May 2022)."
